According to the latest report from BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, China’s share in global newbuilding orders dropped from 72% to 52% in the first half of 2025. The decline comes amid growing concerns over upcoming U.S. port tariffs set to take effect in October, which will affect Chinese shipowners, operators, and even vessels built in China.
Some exemptions will apply to smaller vessels and short-sea routes, but the overall pressure is already being felt across the industry.
🔻 Global Slowdown
New shipbuilding orders worldwide — measured in Compensated Gross Tonnage (CGT) — fell by 54% year-on-year in H1 2025. Contracts for bulk carriers, tankers, and gas carriers saw steep declines due to falling freight rates, while container ships and cruise vessels were the only major segments to experience growth.
“China’s reduced share is likely due to concerns over USTR port fees as well as a broader market slowdown,” said Felipe Gouveia, shipping analyst at BIMCO.
🔧 China Still Leads – For Now
China remains the global leader in shipbuilding, trailing only South Korea in cruise ship and LNG carrier segments. In 2025, South Korea also overtook China in the construction of crude oil tankers for the first time.
However, shipyard capacity outside China is limited, making it difficult for owners to shift production. Experts suggest that without the global downturn, China’s market share would likely have remained higher.
📈 Orderbooks Are Packed
Due to tight capacity, global orderbooks are heavily backlogged:
• 31% of ships ordered in 2025 are scheduled for delivery in 2027
• 38% in 2028,
• and 23% even later.
🇰🇷 South Korea and Japan, ranked second and third globally in shipbuilding, are also facing production bottlenecks due to labor shortages and aging populations, leading to rising labor costs and weakening competitiveness.
🌏 Emerging Players
The Philippines and Vietnam are gradually increasing their output of bulkers and tankers, taking advantage of lower labor costs. Meanwhile, the U.S. and India — though still limited in shipbuilding capacity — are actively investing in developing national shipbuilding industries. However, scaling up will take time.
“China’s dominance won’t vanish overnight, but competition is clearly heating up,” Gouveia concluded.
